It has been a long time since I have talked about my personal accounts on here, but the lack of updates does not reflect a lack of knowledge. After erroneously rebalancing a month ahead of schedule on July 10, 2011, I furthered the "error" by rebalancing again on October 10, 2011 (a month ahead of schedule) since I felt the markets retracted more in September and it would be corrected by November. That thinking is exactly what asset allocations are created to avoid. Normally, the schedule should be what you do and speculation should be on what you are not doing. Unfortunately, for my purposes, I cannot say that my early moves were a bad thing for my portfolio. But I will say that they did not pay off much either.
This month I intentionally got back on schedule, and I was very pleased with how well my portfolio has performed since October 10th. The funds that I discuss on these entries are in my 401(k) and in the past, I had been adding money into the funds at all times. I left my job in April, so no money has gone into that account since then, and the balance is now higher than it was when I left, which is encouraging. In my last entry, I noted that I expected the 2012 markets to raise higher than 10% as measured by the Dow, so I expect another summer slump, but I have another rebalance on May 10, 2012, which should be before the market retracts.
As for today's moves, here is my chart:
Fund # - Real / Current / Target
Fund 24 - 26% / +1% / 25%
Fund 29 - 5% / 0% / 5%
Fund 59 - 25% / 0% / 25%
Fund 84 - 9% / -1% / 10%
Fund 85 - 25% / 0% / 25%
Fund 113 - 10% / 0% / 10%
In the interest of full disclosure, although this blog should never be used as the primary tool for financial planning on any account except the one listed, there were additional moves made in which money was taken from two stronger-performing funds and placed into four lagging funds to preserve the target allocation, which is the point of rebalancing quarterly.
I only mention this caveat to note how pleased I was to see how well those two funds had performed since October. The trickiest part about asset allocation is the actions in contrast to urges and expectations. I mentioned how I failed twice last year by rebalancing a month ahead of schedule, but it is equally important to note that this move takes money out of stronger performing funds and put them in funds that are performing not as well.
Every financial analyst knows the reason for that move would be to "buy low, sell high," but the problem outside of rebalancing is, when you sell, you have to put the money somewhere. If a fund earns 25% over a quarter, and you want to "sell high," where is it going to go? If you need it, then that's an option but it does not allow for further growth. If you sell for the sake of selling high, then you probably know it is going to a stable value fund or a lesser performing fund. But if you analyze the move, then there is a strong likelihood you will decide to hold the excess where it is.
This quarter reminds me how much rebalancing simplifies this struggle. It is like cleaning house in a way. Each fund has its set place, and if one fund gets moved over to one side or another, then you just move it back where it belongs without thinking about it as taking money from a "winning" fund and putting it into one that lags. When those choices start getting the better of your mind, then reconsider the allocation. But, as I've noted previously, when you adjust your allocation, then the new allocation should be decided upon about six months before the first action is made on the account.
I'm sure future entries will discuss this concept further, even though I am very comfortable with my current target asset allocation.
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