It's the end of the year as we know it, and I feel fine.
Rightly so with the DOW closing at 13,105.37, which was up about 7.25% (a bit off what I had predicted) after a highly volatile year, which saw the closer-than-expected re-election of President Obama and ended among fiscal cliff scares. Even though the markets closed up, I admittedly expected a much higher gain than we actually enjoyed (more along the lines of the S&P 500, which closed up 13%). Lots of factors came into play that I had not anticipated, but in the end, the markets are just as unpredictable as always. Most logic behind the market moves is superimposed in hindsight. It would be like a "lottery analyst" providing reasoning behind the randomly generated winning numbers.
That said, predicting the market movements for the upcoming year is simply fun, and I'm not going to miss out on any fun this week!
I was heavily weighing the likelihood that the markets will decline in 2013. When the market tanked in 2008 before bottoming out in February 2009 at 6,500, I said that it would fully recover in 7 years (snapping previous "fastest recovery"-time in half). That was only four years ago, so if the markets went up another 10% in 2013, then it would reach a new high above 14,500. It sounds unlikely, and unbelievable, and next to impossible. It sounds like the words of a dreamer.
Then, there's reality. The all-time high for the market was set over five years ago now. In that short span, the markets went from 14,164 on October 9, 2007, to 6500 in February 2009 and back to 13,610 on October 5, 2012. Why? There's a different answer for each different investor, but when it gets right down to the facts, pulling money out of the stock market is a statement that there are better earning opportunities for money elsewhere. Where? When money comes out of stocks, then it will most likely go to bonds or money markets. The return on money markets right now rounds down to $0 and the near-future of bonds is even more sketchy than that of stocks. Where can that current money in the stock market (and new money coming in) go? There are not many better options outside of stocks, so behind that reasoning, I expect the markets will post a positive return of less than 10% in 2013.
This situation almost begs the question when will money markets and other stable value options start offering significant returns again. It stands to reason when the stock markets reach new highs will be the most likely time, but then again, the stock market retracted so quickly and recovered faster than expected, so its volatility has never been higher. Simply offering a secured investment option may be luring enough for investors looking to avoid stocks for as long as the markets are this volatile. If that observation has enough truth to it, then the answer is that money markets will not offer significant percent returns until the market is less volatile, and as great as it was for stockholders when the markets double in three years, there's no question that the huge spike was as volatile as the sharp fall. Many analysts (perhaps the majority at this point) will admit that the markets are extremely volatile with few signs of gaining stability.
That said, the money markets may no longer need to offer a return on investment so long as they are guaranteeing a safe return of your investment. At this point, it stands to reason, but the thought of it is still quite mind-blowing. For all we've gained with the changes since the Internet ushered in the Information Age, there is plenty we have lost unexpectedly (sometimes, noticeably). Getting 3-5% on a money market may be one of the casualties that few people notice.
No comments:
Post a Comment