Chorus

"On a good day, we can part the seas. On a bad day, glory is beyond our reach."

Saturday, November 10, 2018

The Full Motley -- 4Q, 2018

It has been a highly active three months, even though the amount of my rebalance would perceive it as rather uneventful. Political uncertainty dragged the markets down significantly for several weeks last month leading into the mid-term elections, and then the market recovered sharply in the wake of the elections when the House and Senate were split. Overall, the spread of the fluctuations this past month were about 10% but it ended just about where it was three months ago.

Despite the activity, rebalancing now was insignificant. However, these shaky markets serve as a microcosm for the value that periodic rebalancing provides against longer market activity. Any temptation to move during the height of market uncertainty was neutralized because my next scheduled rebalance was known. If the market retreat continued, then my rebalance at that time would have been more impactful (potentially buying more shares of the equity funds when they were lower). As it turned out, the markets recovered so the dip in values meant nothing as they virtually recovered in the same amount of time. In short, it took the emotion out of the equation during the most emotional time to invest.

As I discussed in my last update, I recently modified my target 85/15 allocation (due to changes at Vanguard) with 30% to Total Stock Index Fund and PRIMECAP Fund, 15% to Total International Stock Index Fund, 11% to Total Bond Index Fund, and the remaining 4% to Total International Bond Index Fund. After all the market activity, only Total International Stock Index Fund was off by 1%, so my reallocation involved fractional percentages coming from the other four funds to make up that percentage point.

To reintroduce the graph for these numbers, which I have not used in five years (back when I started at my current position), here was the impact of this quarter's reallocation:

Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund   30.3% /  -0.3%  / 30%
Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund    30.4% / -0.4% / 30%
Vanguard Total Int'l Stock Fund    14.0% /  1.0%  / 15%
Vanguard Total Bond Market Fund   11.1% /  -0.1%  / 11%
Vanguard Total Int'l Bond Fund   4.2% /  -0.2%  / 4%