Chorus

"On a good day, we can part the seas. On a bad day, glory is beyond our reach."

Sunday, November 14, 2021

The Full Motley -- 4Q, 2021

Welcome to the final stretch of 2021, and the stock markets have been holding strong! In fact, we could break out pinstripe suits and flapper clothes since it almost feels like the start of a new Roaring '20s. Aside from a drop in late-September into early-October, the markets have continued to rise. The dollar amount moving from my Total Stock Market Index Fund into my Total International Stock Market Index Fund this quarter was less than the amount moved in the third quarter.

Any lessons that the market has taught us lately are nothing unique, and they probably could apply generally to life as well. The first one that came to mind compared market returns to happiness. It's funny how we (society) talk of happiness as a destination when it is really just an emotion, the same as our other emotions. It passes, it returns, and we cycle through them all repeatedly. In the market, we say "buy low; sell high," but there is no instruction for what comes next. Selling with nowhere to go is truly poor advice. It is a lot like whatever road to happiness, and learning that the road keeps going through happiness.

I was listening to talk radio this morning, and the broadcasters discussed bubbles. Heavily implying that the market is in another bubble (or is it that they are still saying it?), they said that bubbles emerge out of reasonable and rational thoughts, but they keep growing beyond the reasons and rationale. Many examples exist from AAA-rated mortgage bonds never defaulting (as described in The Big Short) to ESG investing today. The hosts stated how illogical it was that the value of Tesla, Inc. ($TSLA) has exceeded the energy sector combined, considering ZEVs' reliance upon energy.